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铁矿基本面预期未变下仍偏强看待远期溢价值得关注
2020-01-08 00:41  www.fxwindowfilm.com

  12月份,现货端博弈情绪较浓,在冬季补库的大周期下,随着2020年一季度宏观预期不断转好,加之现货成本较高,贸易商普遍出现挺价行为,整体价格震荡偏强。

In december, the spot end of the game sentiment is strong, in the winter replenishment of the large cycle, as the first quarter of 2020 macro expectations continue to improve, coupled with higher spot costs, traders generally appear price behavior, the overall price shock is strong.

  12月,由于唐山两港出现封港,疏港量明显下滑,但在钢厂补库的高需求和短期到港量降低的共同影响下,港口库存整体积累有限。?未来到港量大概率出现先增后减,在需求仍然较好的预期下,未来港口库存也难出现较大幅度积累。

In december, due to the closure of the two ports in tangshan, the volume of port openings fell significantly, but the overall accumulation of port inventory was limited by the combined impact of high demand from steel mills and lower short-term arrivals. ? In the future, the high probability of arrival in Hong Kong increases first and then decreases. In the expectation that demand is still good, it is also difficult for future port stocks to accumulate substantially.

  当下澳巴两地发货量都出现了下降,在常规检修影响之外,澳洲自身生产也出现一定问题,而巴西方面则是其国内混矿周期延长和有意延后发货造成的。

Currently, shipments in both parts of australia and bakistan have fallen, with some problems in australia's own production in addition to the impact of routine maintenance, while brazil is responsible for its extended domestic ore-mixing cycle and intended delays in shipments.

  目前澳巴发货量下降变得较为敏感,一是澳洲已经进入飓风季节,二是巴西产销能力不断受到质疑,短期仍是观察的主要的目标。

Australia has entered the hurricane season, and brazil's ability to produce and sell has been questioned, and the short term remains the main target of observation.

  从生产来看,国内大部分地区完成季节性减停产,但由于今年矿石价格水平较高,部分矿山仍在生产,因此库存总量出现逆季节性回升。

From the production point of view, most parts of the country have completed seasonal production reduction, but because of the high level of ore prices this year, some mines are still in production, so the total inventory has returned to the reverse season.

  3季度末,远期溢价成为现货价格重要的支撑,但进入四季度后,结构性矛盾的支撑作用被补库逻辑所替代,出现了远期溢价不断降低而近月价格坚挺的矛盾。有理由相信,造成这种结果的原因一是远期供应量增大,二是远期需求的减少。

At the end of the third quarter, the forward premium became an important support for spot prices, but after entering the fourth quarter, the supporting role of structural contradictions was replaced by the logic of replenishment, and there was a contradiction that the forward premium was declining and the price of recent months was firm. There is reason to believe that this result is attributable to an increase in forward supply and a decrease in forward demand.

  12月份,主要在高炉利润的影响下,复产量和高炉系数有所增加,铁水产量环比增加318万吨。由于仍处在冬季限产的影响中,整体铁水增量受到抑制。

In December, largely under the influence of blast furnace profits, the compound production and blast furnace coefficient increased, and the production of hot metal increased by 3.18 million tons. Since it is still under the influence of the winter production limit, the overall molten iron increment is inhibited.

  当前石基本面依然较好,在需求韧性的预期背景下,1月底要兑现此前发货量的降低,叠加澳洲飓风带来的情绪影响,在彻底完成补库前,整体价格都会较为坚挺。反过来看,目前是铁矿石最好的阶段,短期的刚性补库,2季度前高需求预期 低供应的矛盾支撑,非主流矿和内矿的增量瓶颈,矿石短期持偏多思路对待。从逻辑上,5月合约供需矛盾要大于9月合约,那么9月合约的估值溢价可能过高。

The current stone fundamentals are still good, in the context of the expected resilience of demand, the end of january to deliver on previous shipments, superimposing the emotional impact of the australian hurricane, before the complete completion of the replenishment, the overall price will be relatively strong. On the other hand, it is now the best stage of iron ore, short-term rigid replenishment, the contradiction support of high demand expectation and low supply before the second quarter, the incremental bottleneck of non-main ore and inner ore, and the short-term holding of more ideas to treat it. Logically, the supply and demand of the May contract is greater than the September contract, so the valuation premium for the September contract may be too high.

  需注意的,远期溢价作为衡量未来供需变化的指标,其水平不断下降,始终在提示现货基本面的风险,需加入持续观察。

It is important to note that the forward premium, as an indicator of future changes in supply and demand, is at a declining level, always suggesting the risk of spot fundamentals that need to be added to the continuous observation.